Tuesday, May 24, 2011

Micheal Lewis - MLB, NFL, IPL?

Reading Michael Lewis' The Blind Side after watching the movie. Its even better than the movies. More nuance, including the evolution of the left tackle.

He should write a book about the IPL. A story (of his) about the melding of cricket and Bollywood would be breathless.

Saturday, April 23, 2011

Sachin == God?

Clearly, Sachin Tendulkar's record speaks for itself and lots of people worship him, but having been on the losing side of many a match in the World Cup, Sharjah and Benson and Hedges finals over the past two decades, the question in my mind is whether Sachin performs when it *really* matters?

I define *really* by: occasion (a final, a decider), the opponent (Australia, Pakistan), and importance (World Cup, Sharjah).

Cricinfo has a nice query interface called Statsguru to answer some of these questions.

It has some limitations though. For e.g., the View Format can contain either all-round fields (match result, for example), or individual fields (batting/bowling results, for example) but not both. So we need to run two queries and correlate the results. I've reproduced the result tables for easy reference.



What was India's performance against Australia or Pakistan, in the finals, semi-finals or quarter-finals of a one-day tournament?




Match resultsResultMarginBRTossBatOppositionGroundStart DateAscendinglost72 runswon2ndv PakistanSharjah25 Oct 1991ODI # 685lost88 runslost2ndv AustraliaMelbourne18 Jan 1992ODI # 709lost6 runslost2ndv AustraliaSydney20 Jan 1992ODI # 711won7 wickets26lost2ndv AustraliaSharjah19 Apr 1994ODI # 910lost39 runswon2ndv PakistanSharjah22 Apr 1994ODI # 912won39 runswon1stv PakistanBangalore9 Mar 1996ODI # 1078won8 wickets53lost2ndv PakistanDhaka14 Jan 1998ODI # 1276lost6 wickets111won1stv PakistanDhaka16 Jan 1998ODI # 1277won3 wickets1won2ndv PakistanDhaka18 Jan 1998ODI # 1279lost4 wickets8won1stv AustraliaDelhi14 Apr 1998ODI # 1316won6 wickets9won2ndv AustraliaSharjah24 Apr 1998ODI # 1327won44 runslost1stv AustraliaDhaka28 Oct 1998ODI # 1360won20 runslost1stv AustraliaNairobi (Gym)7 Oct 2000ODI # 1633lost125 runswon2ndv AustraliaJohannesburg23 Mar 2003ODI # 1993lost37 runslost2ndv AustraliaKolkata18 Nov 2003ODI # 2064lost7 wickets59won1stv AustraliaMelbourne6 Feb 2004ODI # 2097lost208 runslost2ndv AustraliaSydney8 Feb 2004ODI # 2098won6 wickets25lost2ndv AustraliaSydney2 Mar 2008ODI # 2688won9 runswon1stv AustraliaBrisbane4 Mar 2008ODI # 2689won5 wickets14lost2ndv AustraliaAhmedabad24 Mar 2011ODI # 3143won29 runswon1stv PakistanMohali30 Mar 2011ODI # 3147


How did Sachin do in these matches?

Match by match list
0010.0000v PakistanSharjah25 Oct 1991ODI # 685
441040.0000v AustraliaMelbourne18 Jan 1992ODI # 709
696910069.0030v AustraliaSydney20 Jan 1992ODI # 711
66785.7110v AustraliaSharjah19 Apr 1994ODI # 910
24242692.3040v PakistanSharjah22 Apr 1994ODI # 912
31315952.5430v PakistanBangalore9 Mar 1996ODI # 1078
959578121.7965v PakistanDhaka14 Jan 1998ODI # 1276
11616.6600v PakistanDhaka16 Jan 1998ODI # 1277
414126157.6971v PakistanDhaka18 Jan 1998ODI # 1279
15152462.5020v AustraliaDelhi14 Apr 1998ODI # 1316
134134131102.29123v AustraliaSharjah24 Apr 1998ODI # 1327
141141128110.15133v AustraliaDhaka28 Oct 1998ODI # 1360
383837102.7033v AustraliaNairobi (Gym)7 Oct 2000ODI # 1633
44580.0010v AustraliaJohannesburg23 Mar 2003ODI # 1993
45456668.1850v AustraliaKolkata18 Nov 2003ODI # 2064
882236.3610v AustraliaMelbourne6 Feb 2004ODI # 2097
27274067.5040v AustraliaSydney8 Feb 2004ODI # 2098
117*11712097.50100v AustraliaSydney2 Mar 2008ODI # 2688
919112175.2070v AustraliaBrisbane4 Mar 2008ODI # 2689
53536877.9470v AustraliaAhmedabad24 Mar 2011ODI # 3143
858511573.91110v PakistanMohali30 Mar 2011ODI # 3147

Observations:
  • Surprisingly, India has won 11/21 of these matches. Sachin scored more than 50 in 7/11 of these matches, more than 90 in 5/11, and centuries in 3/11.
  • In the 10 matches India lost, Sachin scored less than 50 in 9/10.
That's quite contrary to my impression, and a strong correlation between India and Sachin's performance.

Of course, one could vary the query parameters; add Sri Lanka to the mix, for example, or pick certain venues, like Sharjah which I feel is more intense for India than Dhaka, for example.